足下の企業マインドは一時的に下振れしたサービス業で回復の動きが確認されるなど堅調な推移をみせており、今後も戦時経済が一段と長期化する可能性も充分に考えられる状況にあると捉えられる。
If 100 bps reduction in the Fed funds rate (currently the talk for end-of-year) results in about 30 bps reduction in the ten year, this implies about 23 bps reduction in mortgage rates by year’s end (ballpark!).
By this measure, we’re “catching up” with where we should be. One can play around with the measures (in the Atlanta Fed’s great Taylor rule utility) to get a slightly different picture (e.g., assume the r* is 2%). Still, I think Alternative 3 is pretty reasonable.
米・長期金利、３．７２%に上昇
https://jp.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/bond/BX/TMUBMUSD10Y
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