Calculated Risk : The tariffs will likely make imported used cars more attractive.
日本への税率は24%ではなく、一律の10%のみが適用されるはずだという。
Calculated Risk : Recession Watch Metrics
Calculated Risk : the administration might reverse many of the tariffs (we've seen that before), and Congress might take back complete authority for tariffs. Also, perhaps these tariffs are not enough to topple the economy.
Goldman Sachs : If most of the April 9 tariffs do take effect, then the effective tariff rate will rise by an estimated 20pp once those increases and likely sectoral tariffs take effect, even allowing for some country-specific agreements at a later date. If so, we expect to change our forecast to a recession.
Calculated Risk : The low level of existing home inventory led me to predict that new home sales would pick up - and that happened. This is a reminder that we can't be a slave to any model.
Calculated Risk : The YoY change in new home sales in late 2022 and early 2023 suggested a possible recession. But as I noted earlier, I was able to look past the pandemic distortion
Calculated Risk : and was able to predict a pickup in new home sales due to the low level of existing home inventory and because homebuilders could offer mortgage incentives that would somewhat offset the sharp increase in mortgage rates.
Calculated Risk : There are no special circumstances now, and if this measure falls to off 20% a recession seems likely.
Calculated Risk : The yield curve is a commonly used leading indicator. I dismissed it when the yield curve inverted in 2019 and again in 2022. Both times dismissing the yield curve was correct (the recession in 2020 was obviously due to the pandemic, so we will never know if the yield curve failed to predict a recession in 2019).
Calculated Risk : The yield curve reverted to normal last year and is currently slightly positive at 0.33. If this inverts, this might suggest a recession is coming.
米・長期金利、４．１５%に上昇
https://jp.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/bond/BX/TMUBMUSD10Y
3月の雇用情勢は新規雇用者数が強い伸びを見せるなど、雇用は比較的堅調さを保っていることが確認された。しかし、足下では関税引き上げを受け、企業が雇用にさらに慎重になっていることを示すデータもある。
日本の長期金利、１．２１９%に上昇
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